Belgium's days numbered?

[EvilBastard]

The Guardian thinks that it may be, and The Economist thinks that it should.

Who would have thought that HLers were so devisive?!

[boudicca]

Don't say that! Have you any idea of the degree of warping of the HL spacetime continuum that will be caused if there is a schism in the Lowlands? We'll all surely be sucked towards inevitable crushing destruction in some great final singularity of semi-understandable posts and Duvel-induced ramblings!

There's nothing left to do but pray.

[Obviousman]

Ach, at least we made it to the front page of wikipedia together with Glasgow

Anyway, don't think we'll actually split, but I have to admit there's a pretty bad crisis going on. After 156 days, they haven't even come close to a compromise I found an analysis in the newspaper the other day painfully right, it's Leterme who's like the Belgian Bush, he hasn't been outside Flanders much like Bush had never been outside of Texas except for the odd casino trip to Mexico.

Thanks to that, and narrow mindedness, they're not likely to go for a compromise, they've made promises so big - of which they knew in advance they couldn't actually make them come true - and after trying for so long nobody's giving in even the slightest bit.

Yes, money goes to Wallonia, but I'm very sure we add up quite nicely. Economics aren't an exact science, and therefore you can't calculate how splitting a country would work out. On top of that, how ridiculous would we look, uniting as Europe, but dividing a country.

Regonalisation has been going on for ages, and I feel now it's starting to stop being useful. Sure, some things could be done better by smaller entities, but how far will you go in that? In the end we'd return to city-states, and that's just nonsense. And other things can be done better by bigger. Why do we need a whole army of minsters of Foreign Affairs? Just adds to people's confusion.

Biggest problem is, after all these days, it's starting to bore everyone, even people who find politics interesting like me. They've gone on for 150 days, touching every subject but the painful ones. And even worse, he'd get even more voters as 'he doesn't give in'. Don't people see that's not how politics work

Ah well, well survive. I hope?

[EvilBastard]

On the bright side there is a wealth of comedy potential when it comes to naming the new countries - I vote for WallyWorld for the walloons and Phlegmittyflem for the other bit.

[radiojamaica]

Anyway, don't think we'll actually split ...
Ah well, we'll survive. I hope?

I'm in that same boat...
Crazy separatists, don't they know the grass will always be greener on the other side?

[Badlander]

Why don't they just rename it and officially make it Beerland ?

@ Z : top post.

[Obviousman]

On the bright side there is a wealth of comedy potential when it comes to naming the new countries - I vote for WallyWorld for the walloons and Phlegmittyflem for the other bit.

Oi! We have to live in it, remember,

@ Z : top post.

Just some thoughts thrown together and not at all representative for what people down here thing, I hasten to add!

Anyway, don't think we'll actually split ...
Ah well, we'll survive. I hope?

I'm in that same boat...
Crazy separatists, don't they know the grass will always be greener on the other side?

Glad I'm not the only sane person about But I knew I wasn't

[christophe]

I’m probably a big pessimist. But I fear every new day this crisis continues is one day closer to a split.
Indeed people are getting bored about it all, but now everyone is talking about it and what they hear are things that don’t concern them in any way.
People are mislead that splitting up the country is the only way out (for a problem no one even understands) and it only takes 5 minutes of courage, sorry that should say stupidity, to take one step too far.

[Ozpat]

Well written Z.!

I don't see a split up arriving. The country will be fine once the involved will walk into the right direction. A split up is a very big step and I don't think the Belgian people will let it come that far. If things go wrong there will have to be new elections I guess. I have not the idea that a majority of the people in Flanders want a split up and I cannot imagine any Walloniër would want that.....

[Obviousman]

If things go wrong there will have to be new elections I guess.

Well, there's another problem, practically spoken: they can't to that. They'd have to solve the BHV-matter* (not necessarily split) before or otherwise elections would be unconstitutional in the worst case or an extremely complex matter in the best case. And as both communities have to come to an agreement before they can solve that, they might just as well try form a government.

I have not the idea that a majority of the people in Flanders want a split up and I cannot imagine any Walloniër would want that.....

Not sure about the Flanders bit, people are radicalising towards Wallonia every day it seems, the Wallonians are trying to secure as much of Belgium as they can in the mean time…



* The BHV-matter - in a nutshell as far as that's possible - is about some 54 municipalities where French speakers can vote for their own parties on top of the Flemish parties. This is the only place where this is possible as everywhere else, constituencies overlap with provinces, provinces are mono-lingual (Brussels is not part of a province), but when switching to the new system the then government didn't reach a compromise on this specific one IIRC.

But, main problem is the BHV municipalities are a part of Flanders though actually in most French speakers form a majority in practise. The Flemish community gets a lot of guarantees in Brussels itself (which is limited to 19 municipalities). The French have vague rights (like being served in French when at their town hall) which the Flemish want to abolish and the French want to turn into secure guaranties. On top of that the French would like to form a 'corridor' which would link Brussels to Wallonia as it's embedded as a sort of a bilingual enclave in Flanders. Which is out of the question for most Flemish.

Extra note: Dutch nowadays is only the third or fourth language in Brussels, French is spoken most, English after that, and there might even be some fancy Middle-Eastern language ranking third. Still, Flemish people tend to keep to their rights to speak/be served in Dutch quite strictly when in Brussels.

Hope this cleared the problem up a bit, not sure if anyone can make it understandable to someone who's not reading on it every day. Even I lose the plot every now and then

[markfiend]

A complicated situation indeed!

[Izzy HaveMercy]

With deep divisions between its French and Dutch speakers, not to mention a ludicrously complex administrative system, it's a wonder Belgium has stayed united for so long. Now, after 156 days without a national government, the country is heading for meltdown.

Why did it stay united for that long?

a) it's in The Grauniad.

b) you people are foreign.

Seriously tho, we cope with the Flemish/Wallon issues since far longer than 1830, but the coolest thing is: it WORKS.

Save from some separatists and extreme nutcases, most people grudgingly admit that it works. Belgium is the Ankh Morpork of Europe.

Divide Belgium and we're nothing. And most people here are clever enough to understand that.

It might take a while, but we will come out of yet another crisis.

Understand that our political situation is just difficult to comprehend, hence people always tend to see it fail

IZ.

[Izzy HaveMercy]

I have not the idea that a majority of the people in Flanders want a split up and I cannot imagine any Walloniër would want that.....

Not sure about the Flanders bit, people are radicalising towards Wallonia every day it seems, the Wallonians are trying to secure as much of Belgium as they can in the mean time…

To put it very (and maybe too) simple: all this radicalisation is due to two things.

a) Extreme right-wing/nationalist party Vlaams Belang. Should have had the chance to go into a government from year one. Don't shoot me right away, but then people would have seen they are all about barking and shouting but can't do s**t in a government. That should have ridden us from them once and for all before they begat a firm foot in our political landscape. Cfr. Haider in Austria.

b) our other Flemish Pride: NVA (new Flemish Alliance). I had a lot of respect for Bartje De Wever in the beginning, but if you want an equivalent for Bush in our country, he might as well be Leterme's contender.

All this demagogic talk and twisting of our history gives people ideas, and what is far worse, the WRONG ideas. Certainly in the case of Vlaams Belang.

IZ.

[stefan moermans]

well at least you all know now why we drink that much beer

[Obviousman]

I have not the idea that a majority of the people in Flanders want a split up and I cannot imagine any Walloniër would want that.....

Not sure about the Flanders bit, people are radicalising towards Wallonia every day it seems, the Wallonians are trying to secure as much of Belgium as they can in the mean time…

To put it very (and maybe too) simple: all this radicalisation is due to two things.

a) Extreme right-wing/nationalist party Vlaams Belang. Should have had the chance to go into a government from year one. Don't shoot me right away, but then people would have seen they are all about barking and shouting but can't do s**t in a government. That should have ridden us from them once and for all before they begat a firm foot in our political landscape. Cfr. Haider in Austria.

b) our other Flemish Pride: NVA (new Flemish Alliance). I had a lot of respect for Bartje De Wever in the beginning, but if you want an equivalent for Bush in our country, he might as well be Leterme's contender.

All this demagogic talk and twisting of our history gives people ideas, and what is far worse, the WRONG ideas. Certainly in the case of Vlaams Belang.

IZ.

Radicalisation is indeed mostly thanks to extremists and (perhaps even worse) extremist that cleaned themselves up for the outside world. Not that everyone within the Volksunie (People's union) was an extremist, but this old Flemish nationalist party which was set up rather interestingly and very wide ranging from left to right wing and when it imploded it seems wrong people ended up in wrong places which is leading to the wrong consequences now.

VB partaking in government has always been something I wondered about as well. The main problem with our cordon sanitaire is that it didn't work, probably mostly thanks to Flemish powers within other parties/media/… whereas it did work in the Netherlands (CP) or Wallonia (FN). I would always have said yes to giving them a go and let them blow it, but then see how long it takes to clean things up in the Netherlands (LPF) and Austria On top of that, VB is much smarter than other right wing parties abroad, I'm dead sure they wouldn't blow it at their first go, they'd do all within their powers to do a bloody good job and get people to wonder what all the fuss was about. Which is not a good thing.

[EvilBastard]

well at least you all know now why we drink that much beer

If you sup with the Duvel be sure to use a long spoon...

[psichonaut]

sometimes i can't believe how a bunch of folks would breack a little country as Belgium is, when the wind in Europe blows towards a great multietnic country called EU

[eotunun]

Divide Belgium and we're nothing.

Nothing is 0. United it is two times nothing. That's still 0.
So where is the difference?
Curiosity killed the cat and maths killed Jumlaut. Write that on my gravestone after the lynching, please.

[weebleswobble]

Surely not

[itnAklipse]

If extremists are able to "radicalize" people, then the people were ripe for radicalization to begin with and hold dear to their hearts thoughts similar to what the extremists are proposing. It would be lovely to blame Hollywood for dumbing people down but it's hard to do when people watch that crap voluntarily.

That said, i think culture should be uplifting and inspiring and people in government should be persons aristocratic and above the plebs intellectually and in moral character. So if there are jerks inciting popular but misguided and foolish notions, that's not exactly a positive thing for a nation, either. But that is how democracy works...which is why the greeks weren't very fond of it. And since most people here support democracy and idiotic notions about culture not needing to be uplifting nor inspiring, but rather entertaining, i don't really understand this outcry - it's more like yet another bout of hypocracy.

Anyway.

i'm waiting for a new Hyborean Age, dinosaur that i am.

[stefan moermans]

well the way I see it is that it's not as much to have a real split in Belgium, rather than having a more profound split in responsibilities between north and south. As far as i'm concerned i don't mind the name Belgium or the king, I do mind that teh whole royal family iis supported by the state. Let them get a job, I need to work aswell.

I guess we're heading for new elections and in that case I think socialists will loose again, CD&V will become even bigger, VB will loose and LDD willl win big time.

your correspondent from wherever

[Obviousman]

If extremists are able to "radicalize" people, then the people were ripe for radicalization to begin with and hold dear to their hearts thoughts similar to what the extremists are proposing. It would be lovely to blame Hollywood for dumbing people down but it's hard to do when people watch that crap voluntarily.

Sad thing is, although the Flemish nationalist do/did have some demands that were very just, since WWII, Flemish nationalism has been linked with collaboration too much, and they never did much to get rid of that stigma, actually the Flemish Block (VB) was started as a party of ex-collaborators back in the 70s after the VU had managed to become a fairly normal party. And as I said before, there are certainly certain frustrations that had to be sorted out, before the 70s Belgian rulers were mostly French, but after that the important ones have always been Flemish, so I don't really see why they still should be so frustrated.

I do mind that teh whole royal family iis supported by the state. Let them get a job, I need to work aswell.

I'm much of a republican myself, but costs aren't the right reason to stop having a king. Actually, kings are cheaper than presidents (no elections and all that)!

As for new elections: Probably people'll be as daft as to give the Flemish Christian-democrats and their nationalist wee brother more votes indeed, as they'll do with the poujadist LDD. VB seeing their voters move to other parties is indeed the other trend. Perhaps an effect of the cordon sanitaire after all that?

[Izzy HaveMercy]

VB seeing their voters move to other parties is indeed the other trend. Perhaps an effect of the cordon sanitaire after all that?

Nah, people lost interest. Has nothing to do with the Cordon, not directly anyway. As said before, had the Cordon not be installed, VB would have been down and out ages ago.

Now we have Dedecker as new 'enfant terrible', hence people crane their necks to see who the 'new fresh kid' is and what he has to say.

IZ.

[Obviousman]

VB seeing their voters move to other parties is indeed the other trend. Perhaps an effect of the cordon sanitaire after all that?

Nah, people lost interest. Has nothing to do with the Cordon, not directly anyway. As said before, had the Cordon not be installed, VB would have been down and out ages ago.

Actually I always thought the aim of the cordon sanitaire was to have people lose their interest in VB, but then that might just be my take on it.

Agree with Dedecker being just the one drawing people's attention these days though. Still, I'd rather see him in a government than VB...

[christophe]

I don't agree, I think Dedecker isn't strong enough to carry that burden, he is a coach not a teamplayer. Besides he would attract (and been used by) people that wouldn't be able to be elected on there own.
vlaamsbehang has made to many empty promises over the years, they wouldn’t be able to fulfil them all, besides they know that themselves, if they wanted they would have breached the cordon years ago.