Crimea

[Bartek]

NATO will do nothing, EU gonna propose negotiations, UN is paralyzed and ineffective, so what we gonna do is sit and watch as Putin, desperately trying to prevent from loosing Ukraine from its hug, gonna partitioning Ukraine. Just like we've sat and watched what was happening in Georgia (Abkhazia) in 2008, except that now it's about strategic region.

Script was and is so obvious. And yet Putin already won.

100 years after WW I, almost 70 after WW II Europe is paralyzed and frighten, that let grown a small Hitler, again.

It seems that even here no one of our hot political typing heads care about Ukraine and Crimea.

[lazarus corporation]

NATO will do nothing, EU gonna propose negotiations, UN is paralyzed and ineffective, so what we gonna do is sit and watch as Putin, desperately trying to prevent from loosing Ukraine from its hug, gonna partitioning Ukraine. Just like we've sat and watched what was happening in Georgia (Abkhazia) in 2008, except that now it's about strategic region.

Script was and is so obvious. And yet Putin already won.

100 years after WW I, almost 70 after WW II Europe is paralyzed and frighten, that let grown a small Hitler, again.

It seems that even here no one of our hot political typing heads care about Ukraine and Crimea.

What do you suggest is done by NATO/EU/UN (that won't start a nuclear war that will destroy the planet)? Because god knows we need some constructive suggestions as we walk this tightrope.

[iesus]

I am more concerned about the Nazi's take control of Kiev government then the return of Crimea and other territories that were until 1960's part of Russia to Russia. And i don't care at all if this planet will be destroyed by nuclears. Are you informed that the Nazi party is at the head of Ukraine at this very moment?

[lazarus corporation]

And i don't care at all if this planet will be destroyed by nuclears. Are you informed that the Nazi party is at the head of Ukraine at this very moment?

Yes, I knew that there were Nazis in the new Ukraine government. They're a bunch of c**t.

And yet I still don't want to massacre billions of innocent people in a nuclear war, because genocide is generally what Nazis do, and it's one of the many reasons I hate Nazis.

[iesus]

And i don't want to see billions of people burn in a nuclear holocaust, but it is probably better than to see governments like these to take handle in Europe...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/there-are- ... ts/5370269

and something from 2012
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... camps.html

[lazarus corporation]

And i don't want to see billions of people burn in a nuclear holocaust, but it is probably better than to see governments like these to take handle in Europe...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/there-are- ... ts/5370269

and something from 2012
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... camps.html

No, destroying all life on earth is NOT better than a country having a disgusting political regime.

Believing that you have the right to murder billions of innocent people across the world in order to control the political ideology of a single nation is to adopt the same mindset & immorality of the Nazis.

To say to a child in, for example, Kenya: "I'm sorry, but you must die horribly from the radioactive clouds drifting down from Europe because my political beliefs demand it." is to join the Nazis, not to fight them.

Nazis must be fought, but to fight Nazis, you don't become one.

[iesus]

i think we have to separate that 2 different discussions and not merge them, if you agree
So, there are some countries at this very moment in Europe that exists a real, clear and present danger to get in control of Nazi, or Neonazi parties in a period of months to two years. Has the rest of the countries around the globe the right to ignore that and say: "No. prob as long as we can do some Business let the Nazis govern..."
Is there such a luxury pragmatistic or logical after previous century's WWs events and the aftermath?

[lazarus corporation]

i think we have to separate that 2 different discussions and not merge them, if you agree
So, there are some countries at this very moment in Europe that exists a real, clear and present danger to get in control of Nazi, or Neonazi parties in a period of months to two years. Has the rest of the countries around the globe the right to ignore that and say: "No. prob as long as we can do some Business let the Nazis govern..."
Is there such a luxury pragmatistic or logical after previous century's WWs events and the aftermath?

I don't think anyone has suggested ignoring the Nazi/Neo-Nazis. I certainly haven't.

But that's very different from saying that the only way to stop the evils of the Nazis is to murder billions of innocent people - which would make you as evil or even more evil than the Nazis.

I'd kinda like to try diplomacy, sanctions, political pressure, etc. The things that won't end all life on the planet.

[damagedone]

It's such a filthy game that whenever i think about it,I feel every effort for reasonable and peaceful solution is doomed.I don't know who is right and who is wrong,such a mess.The worst part is the violence,we are supposed to be over it is still here.It saddens me a lot.

[Being645]

Whatever it is, at the moment there is NO violence in Crimea, which IMHO, is an important fact, and I'm not so sure
whether this were the case, if the Russians had not deployed more troops there to "protect their Black Sea Fleet" ...

Most important for now is not break out in panic ...
It is only logical, that Russia wants to preserve their basis in Crimea and also the many Russians who live there.
And the Crimea has been an autonomous region of Ukraine, so what is wrong with letting the people who live there
decide where they want to belong as the country is in change, anyway.

For the rest of Ukraine, they will have their decision to vote for those Nazis or for other parties in the elections in May ... if things keep stable in the meantime.
However, I wish I could make all those scare and warmongers stop talking s**t about Putin or the EU or America or even the Muslim minority and some alleged
al-Qaida allies ... it might be important to be aware of any possible eventualities, but it is not supportive to conjure up and fuel more animosities than actually exist ...

[Bartek]

What do you suggest is done by NATO/EU/UN (that won't start a nuclear war that will destroy the planet)? Because god knows we need some constructive suggestions as we walk this tightrope.

we both know what nuclear war is not an option. (and if is, that the PL, city where i live, maybe Lithuania are first of targets to clear way to west for Russia).

what would be nice IS to drawn a line on sand and be serious about threats of deploying military force in Ukraine to prevent partitioning.

and UN will do nothing because Russia is in United Nations Security Council.

EU will do nothing because it always was way too slow in reactions, not to mention that for some countries Ukraine and Crimea may not be that 'interesting' and worth to protect. and not forget that Europe likes to talk and talking on, but not make a decisions and, even more, actions.

[Bartek]

It is only logical, that Russia wants to preserve their basis in Crimea and also the many Russians who live there.
And the Crimea has been an autonomous region of Ukraine, so what is wrong with letting the people who live there
decide where they want to belong as the country is in change, anyway.

f**k me and marry me young, did you forget that same 'arguments' were used in Georgia in 2008, and not to mention that Hitler used it as well in 1938 (Czechoslovakia)?

For the rest of Ukraine, they will have their decision to vote for those Nazis or for other parties in the elections in May ... if things keep stable in the meantime.

there are far right dickhead as well as moderate, pro-EU parties. it's very hard to say who's gonna win, but if nothing change those far right-dickheads are most likely to win and it's gonna be 'natural' consequence of standing still and letting Russia do whatever they please.

please stop using that kind of rhetoric, it's only good as 'arguments' for partitioning of Ukraine.

it's very easy to be anti-US of A, but how can anyone see that Russia is far worst monster and danger for the world?

[nowayjose]

I'm not a fan of the man but Putin has been relatively reasonable so far, for example, also concerning the Syrian civil war. I don't think he intends to escalate the conflict with Ukraine to an outright war. There's nothing to gain from that. With the eastern part of Ukraine being predominantly Russian, that conflict of interest is inherent in the ethnic composition of the country.

It is also interesting to note that the militia-style troops that are allegedly Russian that have been deployed on the Crimea have all national insignia removed from their uniforms and vehicles. That might be Putin's way of signalling "I'm securing my s**t there but it's not intended as a Russian occupation force".

Plus, Putin has natural gas. You don't bite the hand that heats you.

[sultan2075]

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/20 ... ropaganda/

I haven't followed it too closely yet, but I found the above article interesting.

[Nikolas Vitus Lagartija]

I'm with @Being on this one. The pro-EU lobby (including the nationalists) seem to have seized control of the West of the country where this is the favoured option, whilst the Russians seem to have control of the bit of most strategic interest to them (Crimea) and also have majority support in the East (Kharkhiv region). So if it appears that there is vast support in all areas for partition, why not get the UN in (after all, self-determination in enshrined as a human right in the first chapter of the charter) to help to sort out some quick referenda and oversee a velvet divorce. This is definitely more Yugoslavia than Czechoslovakia in terms of break-up, but let's learn the lessons of the 90s and sort it out before things escalate any further.

[lazarus corporation]

I'm with @Being on this one. The pro-EU lobby (including the nationalists) seem to have seized control of the West of the country where this is the favoured option, whilst the Russians seem to have control of the bit of most strategic interest to them (Crimea) and also have majority support in the East (Kharkhiv region). So if it appears that there is vast support in all areas for partition, why not get the UN in (after all, self-determination in enshrined as a human right in the first chapter of the charter) to help to sort out some quick referenda and oversee a velvet divorce. This is definitely more Yugoslavia than Czechoslovakia in terms of break-up, but let's learn the lessons of the 90s and sort it out before things escalate any further.

I think this is the way forward. If it happens then Eastern Ukraine (including Crimea) will obviously be financially supported by Russia.

Western Ukraine will need the EU as a trading partner - their economy is poor at the moment. In order to join the EU you need to fulfil the Copenhagen Criteria, which include:

stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;

(source: http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/ ... dex_en.htm)

The leverage that these criteria provide should help get rid of the Neo-Nazis in the current caretaker government, enshrine rights for minorities, and set democracy as a cornerstone of Ukrainian politics.

There are some big problems with dividing Ukraine into 2 countries (even if that's what the majority of Ukrainians want). As I understand it, although Eastern Ukraine and Crimea are generally pro-Russian, the Tatar population there is fiercely anti-Russian (understandable, given what I've read). It's a mess.

The main question is: what do the people of Ukraine (bot East and West) want? A "velvet divorce" is an option, but only if self-determined - it cannot and should not be forced upon Ukraine by the EU, US, UN, or Russia.

Edit: some good commentary about the role of China in this: http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-bl ... ic-war/441

[Bartek]

I see that Russian propaganda works well: "neo-nazis", "fascists", "dividing Ukraine".

Can someone point me what Yatsenyuk or Turchynov got in common with 'Svoboda' or 'Right Sector'? except the obvious - nationality and being against Yanukovych.

You seems to forgot why this begin, if so then i'll remind you: Ukraine was about to sing partnership act with EU. Therefor abandoning Ukraine now it's very typical for European countries what willing to sell anyone for "peace". and that could be a reason to take over power by "Svoboda" and "Right Sector" in Ukraine.

And i forgot about that, EU gonna use two of the deadliest weapons: equivalent of A-bomb (EU is deeply concerned) and equivalent of H-bomb (EU strongly condemn)

And second, there couldn't be such big Russian minority in Crimea if there wasn't Russian naval base in Sevastopol.

I'm wondering if Russian will try to do same in Estonia (high percentage of Russian minority there), then you gonna write same and same cliches. (of course that can not happen- Estonia is a member of EU and NATO, Ukraine wasn't lucky enough).

[lazarus corporation]

I see that Russian propaganda works well: "neo-nazis", "fascists", "dividing Ukraine".

Can someone point me what Yatsenyuk or Turchynov got in common with 'Svoboda' or 'Right Sector'? except the obvious - nationality and being against Yanukovych.

It's not Russian propoganda - there are members of the neo-nazi "Svoboda" party in major cabinet positions in the current (interim) Ukraine government. People like Andriy Parubiy, the new Defence Minister, who is the co-founder of Svoboda. There are other Svoboda members in the government as well.

You seems to forgot why this begin [snip]

No, I don't think anyone's forgotten why this happened, and it would be patronising to suggest they have.

This whole situation is a mess, and the worst thing that could happen is for people to start trying to portray it childishly with "goodies against baddies".

Putin is an incredibly dangerous egotistical maniac with some disgusting policies who seems determined to plunge Europe into hell for personal gain/ego, and the Svoboda members in the Ukrainian interim government are neo-nazis, that could turn Western Ukraine into a Neo-Nazi state.

Best situation would be UN-monitored democratic elections in Ukraine, enforced by threat of sanctions. If these elections could get rid of the neo-nazis in the interim government then the path forward is a lot clearer.

[lazarus corporation]

Apparently China have just issued a statement respecting Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity.

Very important with respect to this link posted earlier: http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-bl ... ic-war/441

[Bartek]

as far as i remember after 2004 there was not doubt that elections in Ukraine were free of dirty tricks (unlike in Russia), so why now start doubting? that's first.
Svoboda is in interim government because it's of main opposition party- second. It would be a danger to have another mini-Russia~alike state next to PL, but i hope that Ukrainians are wise enough, to chose not let Svoboda rules their country. After all western Ukraine IS pro EU. same as western Ukraine has strong, historic nationalist ugly face, and that's sad truth, that i'm not miss from big picture.

Third, how does that help to current situation? I mean, Russia invading Crimea and possibly whole eastern (if not whole) Ukraine? Actions need to be taken now, not in next 2,5 months.

Well, sorry to sound like condescending dick, but I'm seriously pissed to see that Europe, again, has no will to do something more than just talk.

And it's not good vs evil.

What i believe and fear is that Svoboda may win election, if rest of the world will abandon them (Ukraine) now.
But it's 'good' to see that Turkey and China (not so much friend of Russia) are stating their statement and position.
In the mean time Europe has to come back from skiing and DO something.

[GC]

It's such a filthy game that whenever i think about it,I feel every effort for reasonable and peaceful solution is doomed.I don't know who is right and who is wrong,such a mess.The worst part is the violence,we are supposed to be over it is still here.It saddens me a lot.

Me too.

[lazarus corporation]

as far as i remember after 2004 there was not doubt that elections in Ukraine were free of dirty tricks (unlike in Russia), so why now start doubting? that's first.

Because it's necessary that the next elections are seen by all to be fair and impartial, without any influence from Russian forces on the ground in Eastern Ukraine or neo-nazi streefighters on the ground in Western Ukraine. That way no one can dispute the result of any election. Surely that's obvious?

Third, how does that help to current situation? I mean, Russia invading Crimea and possibly whole eastern (if not whole) Ukraine? Actions need to be taken now, not in next 2,5 months.

Well, sorry to sound like condescending dick, but I'm seriously pissed to see that Europe, again, has no will to do something more than just talk.

And it's not good vs evil.

What i believe and fear is that Svoboda may win election, if rest of the world will abandon them (Ukraine) now.
But it's 'good' to see that Turkey and China (not so much friend of Russia) are stating their statement and position.
In the mean time Europe has to come back from skiing and DO something.

Action is being taken. The UK's Foreign Minister is in Kiev (important since the UK was one of the 4 signatories to the 1994 agreement on Ukrainian independence). I expect that foreign ministers and diplomats from all EU states are either in Ukraine or in constant communication with their Ukrainian and Russian counterparts.

Various EU states and the US have made much stronger statements than China or Turkey. Perhaps that inconvenient if you want to rant about the EU, but it's the truth.

No shot has been fired yet, and that is important. There's still a chance for a diplomatic solution. Russia isn't in good shape economically - the Ruble is on a downwards trend and Russia needs trading partners in the west to stay afloat, so the EU has a lot of leverage.

You need to read between the lines of the press statements. Don't dismiss "just talking".

[Bartek]

i updated info about current situation and it seems that Russia seems to be willing to gladly not invade Ukraine. God speed you Tsar Vladimir!

what i'm saying by "action" is of course not only attacking Russia, but drawing line and doing some serious diplomatic job using every necessary tools.

of course i'm not happy to even think about war, but my personal idea/opinion, that i got for last few years, is that almost 70 years without some major war here in Europe, not local as in former Yugoslavia, is far too long. i fear that my generation has to on some way prepare for that, because it's gonna happen, sooner or later. and unfortunately now it's a 'right' time - economical problems, serious errors in current economical system on one hand and huge amount of military forces on the other hand. but again, i hope i'm very wrong about that.

and some another opinions: http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2014/ ... alculated/

[eotunun]

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/20 ... ropaganda/

I haven't followed it too closely yet, but I found the above article interesting.

There seem to be facts strongly opposing the parts of what is said there regarding the degree of popularity with Kiltschko.
Marina Weisband, a member of the German Pirate Party, reported that Klitschko was hardly present in the people's perception, and surely wouldn't be favoured as future head of their government. The western media keep mentioning him there, probably mainly because of his degree of popularity. He probably wouldn't be a bad choice, though.

The Nazi-thing with the Maidan revolution may be a matter of propaganda and counter-propaganda. But then, it may not. It may be as it usually is with the Nazi f**ks, which is that they observe what goes down well with Johnny Common at the time, where they may find acceptance or even support for their activities, to hijack other's initiatives and then do their populist retro rant thing.
There were pictures on Spiegel Online (German magazine) showing shields held by protesters that had a 1488* written on. There were those pitty buzzers with stiff right arms seen in several places in the Kiev protests as well. So I conclude Putin is not all off tracks with his claims of far right influence in those protests. Funnily, Putin campains with far right wing-ish political positions, yet condemns the far right.. Anyway, I'm with him in condemning them, obviously.
It may be a very post-war German thing to grind one's teeth and growl when Nazis enter any stage, but especially with Hungary being neighbour to the Ukraine, there actually might be influence from that neighbour and the surroundings of its far right government, which probably are way more extremist than the party themselves.

Looking at what happened to the Arabian revolutions, this would be a familiar pattern:
-Courageous, idealistic activists take actions against authoritarian/corrupt regiemes, with a plan for a more world open and generally more open minded, progressive and liberal government in their minds.
-They find support in their country, foreign media support them, foreign power (Ecconomical or political) smell an opportunity.
-The Activists succede, the dictatorship falls, elections are held.
-Foreign influence on the election campains in those countries that are not familiar with democratic daily life, vote what they think or are told or are told to think of as righteous power. The elections bring up certain powers that are in favour of those certain foreign influences. (In the case of the arabian revolutions, Muslim Brotherhood etc. were substancially supported by Arabian royals from Qatar, Oman etc. as support for their own power abroad.)
-Due to the foreign support, some backwards oriented, authoritarian sock puppet government is elected, the activists that initiated the change end up betrayed for their victory or even as potential enemies of the state.

Nazis know that they never do better than when things are destabilized, and Ukraine may have looked an easy steal.
So what started as a move by decent activists for the better may end up at things turning to the worst.

That far right part of the protesters is to be watched most carefully. They are not there to support the people or any democratic ideal, they are there for a cheap steal.

Putin may be a bastard, but he's not a dafty. He saw that.
(But what I guess Putin is unable to realize through his cold warrior's vision thing is that, in the (possibly not so) long run, Russia will have to deal with becomming one ecconomical sphere with the EU. Not only because of its proximity but the sheer economical weight of the EU countries. Don't ask me how that's going to work, though.
The USA have seen that, too. Thus there are those talks behind closed curtains for the trans atlantic free trade with the USA. (Don't ask me how *THAT* is going to work though, Merkel already spat 70% of the Germans right in the face when she let the genetiacally manipulated corn get a foot in the door to Europe. That was DRASTICALLY unpopular with the Germans! I wonder since when she had the balls to do anything as unpopular at all! No miracle it was a move in the wrong direction, it was her not moving according to given directions!))


*if anyone really didn't know: 1488 is a code used by Combat 18, referring to the first, fourth and eighth letters of the alphabet which they, in this combination, read as "Arian Domination, Heil Hitler". Thus a savy person wouldn't expect to find a fundamental democrat displaying such insignia. That Nazi terrorist den, that has been roaming through germany for a decade (One wonders where all the observationers of all those services were looking then..), used the methods of terror as suggested by those 1488er f***s as blueprint for committing their attrocities.

[markfiend]

Military adventures in the Crimea? What could possibly go wrong? Putin knows that no-one in the west wants a new Cold War though and is pushing the boundaries, seeing what he can get away with. Quite a lot, it would seem. :sigh:

BTW I suppose everyone has seen this image:


On the left is Putin in his KGB days pretending to be a tourist, meeting Ronnie Raygun.