Heartland

that is true that this and similar situations are a ground for ultra-nationalists to grow above their 'natural' level of support.
but what we have to keep in mind is a fact that Svoboda has/had 12% (37 of 450 sits in national parliment) in last election, so it's not that they could rule alone. (of course 12% is at least 10% too much.) in fact, it's far more plausible that "fatherland" and "Udar" may rule without svoboda. but i understand that small panic - no one want to see ultra-nationalist in charge in any country.

but sadly growing support for right wing dickheads is not only problem of Ukraine or Hungary, but also Greece, U.K., Poland (here in far less scale, there's a very little change that this dickheads will get even single one sit in national parliment) - it's kinda depresing to see that people learn nothing from history.

what made me pissed and sad was colours of Ukrainian Insurgent Army on barricades - that is a shame and disgrace.

but Putin has no credit to condemn other country when righ-wings dickheads may/might have a little of chance to take over the power - he breed, feed and support same ultra-nationalist twats in Russia. pointing fact or possible risk is one, but doing same in his own county is something that exclude one from condeming.

but it's nice to see that simple, yet efficinet threats made by Merkle seems to work, and maybe even stop Putin for good from invading Ukraine.

We never really got away from the 'spheres of influence' did we?

I read a quote yesterday about how 'Western military adventurism' has utterly failed in its m*****n to introduce 'democracy' in all these war-torn hotspots across the world.
It's sadly true, and there is no way we will countenance any more interventions - least of all on Russia's front doorstep.

timsinister wrote:We never really got away from the 'spheres of influence' did we?

I read a quote yesterday about how 'Western military adventurism' has utterly failed in its m*****n to introduce 'democracy' in all these war-torn hotspots across the world.
It's sadly true, and there is no way we will countenance any more interventions - least of all on Russia's front doorstep.

That's no surprise. You can't have democracy without having democrats - and that in turn requires a certain fairly specific set of moral views concerning the individual, the rule of law, property rights, etc., etc., etc.

And you're right: the West will do nothing, because it can do nothing.

that is true no one will move a muscle because that region to Oder river was and still is a playground for wars. not only because 'sphere of influence', just geographically.

The Russian rouble has hit a new low against the dollar and euro, and the Russian Central Bank apparently had to sell $10bn of reserves to support the rouble as well as increasing the key lending rate from 5.5% to 7%.

Stocks on Moscow's MICEX stock index also fell more than 11%.

That's just one day's fallout that Putin will have to deal with. The Russian economy wasn't particularly strong to begin with.

and that a nice move. but not forget that Russian Central Bank has $490 bln reserve, that's can literally buy them some time.

Bartek wrote:and that a nice move. but not forget that Russian Central Bank has $490 bln reserve, that's can literally buy them some time.

That's only a bit more than 25 Whatsapps...

nowayjose wrote:

Bartek wrote:and that a nice move. but not forget that Russian Central Bank has $490 bln reserve, that's can literally buy them some time.

That's only a bit more than 25 Whatsapps...

Or, at $10bn per day, just 49 days until Russia is completely bankrupt and unable to pay its soldiers.

and that's a good news that's a game that we could play. it could cause internal problem for Putin, but again, it would also stretche his nerves and that could cause a trouble. maybe, as Merkel was supposed said, Putin's just loosing touch with reality?

but how about spoils of war?

Bartek wrote:and that's a good news that's a game that we could play. it could cause internal problem for Putin, but again, it would also stretche his nerves and that could cause a trouble. maybe, as Merkel was supposed said, Putin's just loosing touch with reality?

but how about spoils of war?

Ukraine's economy is in a poor state as well - that's why they're after a $32bn handout, so not much in the way of spoils in Ukraine.

Bartek wrote:and that's a good news that's a game that we could play. it could cause internal problem for Putin, but again, it would also stretche his nerves and that could cause a trouble. maybe, as Merkel was supposed said, Putin's just loosing touch with reality?

but how about spoils of war?

That's not a view I find particularly persuasive. I think that the EU (it may be incorrect to speak of the entire EU on this point?), which resolves problems diplomatically, and the US which (popular opinion notwithstanding) prefers to do the same, have both assumed that Putin is one of them. I think that for the ruling elites in both the EU and the US the idea that someone could be both rational and in disagreement with them is hard to accept. One of the American neoconservatives (the younger Kagan, I think) once commented that the EU's post-modern, post-Kantian order depends on America being committed to a Hobbesian view of international relations as the state of nature: European post-modern politics is built on a foundation of American commitment to modern (i.e., Hobbesian) politics. It's an interesting idea. But what happens when Americans elect a president who signals his abandonment of modern, Hobbesian politics?

A report on the Russian people's attitude to Putin's actions, and some more discussion on the Russian economic situation after today:

http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/putin- ... ea-russia/

@LazCo: you're right, but there's still goods. Red army took everything that they could. and i see no reason why Russian army wouldn't do the same. but that's half-serious.
now we'll see if Obama can turn words into actions (diplomatic and economical threats).

and that article sums up pretty much what and why I'm "deeply concerned" of what's going on there and what might happen. I guess that's why most Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians may think same about that. History and Geography are against us, and i'm aware that if this will turn into something bigger we're gonna be alone here.

@Sultan: i wouldn't do so deep analysis of Merkle's words - to me it more about pointing out that Putin simply does not want to see short mid and long term effects of his actions, that this might turn against him/Russia very quickly and put Russia in bad position for long time.

Bartek wrote:
@Sultan: i wouldn't do so deep analysis of Merkle's words - to me it more about pointing out that Putin simply does not want to see short mid and long term effects of his actions, that this might turn against him/Russia very quickly and put Russia in bad position for long time.

I wonder, though. Part of me thinks that he knows that whichever party holds the American presidency for two terms runs a real risk of losing it in the next election. If I'm Putin, Obama's behavior in regard to Syria gives me a reason to act now. He's not dumb. He knows the Americans won't do a damn thing about this - which means he knows Europe won't do a damn thing about this. Maybe someone will fire off an angry letter. But that's ok. Putin has a paper shredder. I don't know enough about the European political situation vis-a-vis Putin to speak to it, but the American situation is clear enough: he has an opportunity to do whatever he wants in relation to the Americans. Obama presents no credible threat. And, after over a decade of seeing our sons die to bring democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan, the American people are simply unwilling to spend blood and treasure on some other people's good.

Everyone on this side of lake are aware of fact that US of A will do nothing when it comes to military side of this problem (at least officially). of course, Obama's diplomatical and economical threats are unclear and unkowns in form and specific actions, but believe me, it's on some way better than nothing, it's slightly ease tense.
EU can't do a thing because there's no EU military troops (EU Army; existing joint force and actions it's a different thing, due to political difereneces, national interests of each countries i don't think that it will work when in time of true test), there's no coherent EU defence policy (see above). everyone knows that, or at least ought to be aware of that. we can only wait. wait until Tsar Vladimir die before his demands rise, sorry, before his helping hands will crush another country/-ies.

Given that the UK's financial services industry relies on laundering money for Russian gangsters for a lot of its business, I wouldn't be overly hopeful of anything other than "tut-tut" noises from the UK government.

Don't blame me, I didn't vote for the bastards.

according to Telegraph you were right Mark.
Funny. France still building naval ships for Russian. Business as usual, money is money, pecunia non olet or omlet and so.

So far today Putin has said that the ousted former Ukrainian president "has no political future" and there are reports that Russian troops "on exercises" near Ukraine border have been ordered by Putin to return to base. That almost amounts to an "about face" in political terms.

I know some of you have been moaning because the west hasn't waded in to a big testosterone-fueled military show of strength (i.e. it hasn't acted like that madman Putin), but it does seem like the subtle behind-the-scenes diplomacy is starting to have a positive effect.

Subtle behind-the-scenes diplomacy is obviously not as televisually exciting as blowing limbs off civilians and soldiers, but I do always prefer it where possible. And it's certainly a more appropriate response than annihilating the entire planet in a nuclear firestorm, as was suggested on page 1 of this thread.

Best way forward now would be (IMHO):

• Agree to have a UN peace-keeping force enter Ukraine. Best if they come from neutral states (e.g. a UN peace-keeping force from African states). Or if Obama wants to be cheeky then he could suggest a UN peace-keeping force that includes Israel.
• Elections within 3 months, monitored by UN peacekeeping force and experts.

we will see how this subtle behind-the-scenes diplomacy work. now it's just a words. some bitter and brutally honest for US of A, but just a words.
and it always dependes who read and interpret it. to me Putin said Crimea will be a part of Russia because that will be people demand - "free" referendum.

Of course that Yanukovych has not future in politic. he lost all credibility, none would treat him serious. and will see him no more than he was and is now - Putin dog.

i like idea of UN-neutral-states-peace-keeping force/observers.
but how about let this "not"-Russian troops with no insignia do what they're doing now?

elections in Ukraine will take place 25 may.

i seriously doubt that nuclear winter was/is an option for anyone. conventional war? sure! after all Russian-non-Russian troops (no insignia) are already in Ukraine, Russian navy is there. it would be hello of a bliztkrieg.

Like you mentioned on page one Bart it's scary to see the parallels between this and the Sudetenland.

On the one hand, I agree with LazCorp that we don't want a shooting war to start, but OTOH we also don't want William Hague to have in his hand a piece of paper...

markfiend wrote:Like you mentioned on page one Bart it's scary to see the parallels between this and the Sudetenland.
...

It seems, this is not a similar case at all. In many point views.

lazarus corporation wrote: [*] Agree to have a UN peace-keeping force enter Ukraine. Best if they come from neutral states (e.g. a UN peace-keeping force from African states). Or if Obama wants to be cheeky then he could suggest a UN peace-keeping force that includes Israel.

I see what you're doing there...


IMHO the best option is not to do anything. They'll growl at each other some more, and then it's time for rounds of vodka.

lazarus corporation wrote:So far today Putin has said that the ousted former Ukrainian president "has no political future" and there are reports that Russian troops "on exercises" near Ukraine border have been ordered by Putin to return to base. That almost amounts to an "about face" in political terms.

I know some of you have been moaning because the west hasn't waded in to a big testosterone-fueled military show of strength (i.e. it hasn't acted like that madman Putin), but it does seem like the subtle behind-the-scenes diplomacy is starting to have a positive effect.

Subtle behind-the-scenes diplomacy is obviously not as televisually exciting as blowing limbs off civilians and soldiers, but I do always prefer it where possible. And it's certainly a more appropriate response than annihilating the entire planet in a nuclear firestorm, as was suggested on page 1 of this thread.

Best way forward now would be (IMHO):

• Agree to have a UN peace-keeping force enter Ukraine. Best if they come from neutral states (e.g. a UN peace-keeping force from African states). Or if Obama wants to be cheeky then he could suggest a UN peace-keeping force that includes Israel.
• Elections within 3 months, monitored by UN peacekeeping force and experts.

I'm all with you Paul, i.e. mostly.
Israeli peace keeping troops ... ... yes, perfect! There were surely lessons to learn ... ...

iesus wrote:

markfiend wrote:Like you mentioned on page one Bart it's scary to see the parallels between this and the Sudetenland.
...

It seems, this is not a similar case at all. In many point views.

yeah, it's more like mix of Czechoslovakia'38 and Anschluss.