Heartland

EvilBastard wrote:Another good, if lengthy, read.

They must have been sleeping deeply and dreamlessly during the whole of the past century. How can anybody with a minimum knowledge of WWII, its attempted genocide, its nuclear bombs, its extremely high numbers of casulties, its consequences up until today find any reason and logic in returning to Shari'a, extending a caliphate by rudimentary violent means like beheading people with a sword and shooting down innocent with rifles, suicide-bombing themselves, their sons, daughters and a few more random victims while referring to "destiny" ... it's just incredibly ridiculous. Don't they feel it? Obviously not. Otherwise they might turn to crushing their brains for how to come to terms with diversity, how to really reform the United Nations, how to dethrone Death as the Master on Earth ... in short, how add up to humanity in a way that would praise Islam rather than stultify it.

EvilBastard wrote:

Pista wrote:

EvilBastard wrote: Syria is going to need leadership when this mess gets dealt with - and Assad has proved himself a capable leader.

& one that the Saudis want shot of

All the more reason to keep him around, then.

Agreed. Saudis have lot more impact in that region than they should, taking that they're one of main donators of terrorists. Saudi Arabia is one of that worst kind of Arabic country, but they're friends of US of A, so no one will dare to touch them. But they have their liquid weapon, so it's another point for them.

That you seems to forgot is Kurds. They could create their own country not only that they one of the biggest diaspora-without-country in the world, but because it may help stabilize region, help (a bit) Turkey with they internal problems. Of course Turkey may be reluctant to do that, but proper pressure may help.

Being645 wrote:

EvilBastard wrote:Another good, if lengthy, read.

They must have been sleeping deeply and dreamlessly during the whole of the past century. How can anybody with a minimum knowledge of WWII, its attempted genocide, its nuclear bombs, its extremely high numbers of casulties, its consequences up until today find any reason and logic in returning to Shari'a, extending a caliphate by rudimentary violent means like beheading people with a sword and shooting down innocent with rifles, suicide-bombing themselves, their sons, daughters and a few more random victims while referring to "destiny" ... it's just incredibly ridiculous. Don't they feel it? Obviously not. Otherwise they might turn to crushing their brains for how to come to terms with diversity, how to really reform the United Nations, how to dethrone Death as the Master on Earth ... in short, how add up to humanity in a way that would praise Islam rather than stultify it.

You see, all the atrocities are for Western world as well as for so~called IS "soldiers" and future recruits. For us is simple mindless brutality that is for spreading panic, terror, agression, to make us (by media) push on governments to do "something" (why they staring and do nothing?!). For them - to show 'coherent', 'clear' vision, for showing who is who. They have to have certain amount of brutality, sadistism in themselves to join so~called IS, to kill people. They have to believe in that hollow slogans.

Bartek wrote:

Being645 wrote:

EvilBastard wrote:Another good, if lengthy, read.

They must have been sleeping deeply and dreamlessly during the whole of the past century. How can anybody with a minimum knowledge of WWII, its attempted genocide, its nuclear bombs, its extremely high numbers of casulties, its consequences up until today find any reason and logic in returning to Shari'a, extending a caliphate by rudimentary violent means like beheading people with a sword and shooting down innocent with rifles, suicide-bombing themselves, their sons, daughters and a few more random victims while referring to "destiny" ... it's just incredibly ridiculous. Don't they feel it? Obviously not. Otherwise they might turn to crushing their brains for how to come to terms with diversity, how to really reform the United Nations, how to dethrone Death as the Master on Earth ... in short, how add up to humanity in a way that would praise Islam rather than stultify it.

You see, all the atrocities are for Western world as well as for so~called IS "soldiers" and future recruits. For us is simple mindless brutality that is for spreading panic, terror, agression, to make us (by media) push on governments to do "something" (why they staring and do nothing?!). For them - to show 'coherent', 'clear' vision, for showing who is who. They have to have certain amount of brutality, sadistism in themselves to join so~called IS, to kill people. They have to believe in that hollow slogans.

I see
a) you fully missed the point
b) of course, there is a "dark side" only in bad people such as terrorists ...

Yeah, might be.

EvilBastard wrote:So perhaps the really perverse solution is turn a blind to Russian airstrikes against the Syrian rebel forces, arm Assad's army with high-tech weaponry, and have him chip away at the caliph's turf. While Assad is the last word in unpleasantness, it wouldn't be the first time that the west got into bed with a villain. Like it or not, Syria is going to need leadership when this mess gets dealt with - and Assad has proved himself a capable leader.
Me, I'm not a fan of that solution - but it's one possible avenue of exploration.

Personally I am a fan of that solution.

bismarck wrote:Personally I am a fan of that solution.

It's not the worst solution by any means - my concern is what Assad will do once he's confined the caliphate to the local equivalent of a back bedroom in Penge. He will have acquired a new cloak of legitimacy, and the west will be falling over themselves to help him. The concern is that the "help" will come in the form of new and interesting ways of quelling internal dissent (what his father did in Hama in '82 springs to mind). We run the very real risk of creating for ourselves a new pocket dictator that we will inevitably be unable to keep leashed. These sorts of faustian bargains rarely end well for anyone - not us, not the civilians concerned, nor the dictator that we propped up. While we may have achieved a short-term win, the longer-term consequences may be worse than we might imagine.

Also, the plot is rather thickened, since to be seen to be supporting Assad the west is by extension supporting Iran, and its proxy force in Lebanon, Hizb'allah. Such a move would most certainly get Israel's back up (although I can't think of a better reason to do anything than that). So it's a bit of a pickle. We need to do something about Sunni extremism, in the shape of Daesh, but in so doing we can't be seen to be strengthening Iran's hand in the region. What a kerfuffle.

Then again, Iran stands to win however it plays out - if Daesh gets more power the Iran can claim to be on the side of the good guys, since it is deeply involved in arming forces to combat them (specifically Hizb'Allah). Which perversely also makes Hasan Nasrallah one of the good guys.
If/when Daesh is crushed, Assad regains power, and Iran gets its link to Lebanon restored.

Bloody hell, the more I think about this the more intractable the problem seems - there isn't an outcome here that looks at all appealing.

EvilBastard wrote:
Bloody hell, the more I think about this the more intractable the problem seems - there isn't an outcome here that looks at all appealing.

"It's a pity they both can't lose."

Question is: did we learn from Libya and what did we learn from that lesson?
Of course Kaddafi was criminal, as well as Asad is (crushing opposition, breaking people's rights and freedoms, tortures ), but it's, as we see, relatively easy to overthrow politic, and even easier to leave empty hole for terrorism and "tribal" wars/ constant civil war. Option is to install someone who will has no support in people and future politics/present opposition (lke in Afghanistan), but know that it help just a bit.

Another question is (taking religious divide in Muslims): if someone new, then how to minimalize (because avoid is impossible) revenge on another wing/part? How to use Asad's political structures and influence, to not let Syria fall apart after won over so~called IS and maybe Asad?

Whatever we do: this region is going to be, even more than it is now, filed of political fight between Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

EvilBastard wrote: Bloody hell, the more I think about this the more intractable the problem seems - there isn't an outcome here that looks at all appealing.

Maybe it's high time for a summit of the Arab League! I can't see why they should leave solving these largely regional (and long-term) problems entirely to Europe, the US, Russia and others. Why not take at least some responsibility and seriously try to come to terms on a regional basis, instead of complaining about interventions from the outside and putting all the blame on others. Obviously, there is not even the faintest idea among those countries that, in fact, they could start a multilateral dialogue on common forum as a first step... or maybe, they just forgot to think of it (again) ...

Being645 wrote:Maybe it's high time for a summit of the Arab League! I can't see why they should leave solving these largely regional (and long-term) problems entirely to Europe, the US, Russia and others. Why not take at least some responsibility and seriously try to come to terms on a regional basis, instead of complaining about interventions from the outside and putting all the blame on others. Obviously, there is not even the faintest idea among those countries that, in fact, they could start a multilateral dialogue on common forum as a first step... or maybe, they just forgot to think of it (again) ...

Well yes, except that the main players in the region (Saudi, Iran) are too hung up on the brand of Islam that the other practices. For the Saudis, Daesh is the sharp end of its "struggle" against Shia dominance, for Iran the prospect of a violent, unrestrained Sunni actor getting between it and its ally in Lebanon is unthinkable.

Sanctions against Saudi could work - no trade until they stop supporting Daesh. That could dry up Daesh's principal source of funding. Then confine Daesh to its nest and prevent its expansion. Close Syria's borders to incoming traffic, cut of Daesh's supply of recruits. Bottle it up, and eventually it will consume itself. That requires the stomach to deal with another 5-10 years of atrocities, the slow strangulation of the population within Daesh's grasp today, and the will to deny it the oxygen of publicity. When there is another attack, don't ascribe it to "ISIS", just call it a "terrorist attack" and move on. Don't give Daesh the plaudits that it needs to make it attractive to the kinds of people it wants to recruit.

Spend the time formulating productive, proactive outreach to the people who would join Daesh if they could - the young, disaffected, disenfranchised, disenchanted, hopeless and rootless. Find ways to prove that they are part of the communities that they live in, that they are important part of the social fabric of countries like Britain, Belgium, France, and the USA. That's going to be far harder than executing airstrikes against Daesh - it will require a sea-change in the way people perceive Islam and Muslims in the west. But if we want to turn the perception of Daesh from Shining City On The Hill to Bunch of Beardy-Weirdy Nutters On The Bus then we need to make their manifesto unattractive.

But gods know how we manage that.

This man probably knows what he's talking about. Which is alas a sure sign that no-one will listen to him.

i'm not going to add or distract from arguments put more eloquently by others, and this is a little late, but i just wanted to offer my sympathy and love to all those who have lost loved ones and friends in this awful tragedy. however we deal with it from here on-in wont bring them back. poor fuckers.

eastmidswhizzkid wrote:i'm not going to add or distract from arguments put more eloquently by others, and this is a little late, but i just wanted to offer my sympathy and love to all those who have lost loved ones and friends in this awful tragedy. however we deal with it from here on-in wont bring them back. poor fuckers.

Yeah well said.